Bare-Table Intermodal Trains...

JCagle · December 09, 2008, 10:37:11 PM

Near the North Carolina Transportation Museum there is a large area in the old Spencer yard where NS will often store some excess rolling stock. Often they use it for holding stock that will be scrapped, but it would be a great place to drop some unused stock since things are slowing down. Next time I'm up that way I'll ride by and see what's there.

Backyard · December 10, 2008, 09:01:45 PM

As I write this House MD is playing "Silent Night"....

I hope you guys have a very Merry Christmas in spite of the downturn...

...tying them down

ssmith1627 · December 11, 2008, 03:34:04 PM

I handle the import containers for Goody's here. We moved 1250 of them last year. We've had our bankruptcy and store closings and we're down by 1/3rd this year. I've been told import container volumes are back down to 2004 levels. Ocean freight rates are starting to come down because the ships are no longer full.

It may get a lot worse for us. I don't know that Goody's is going to survive at all. It looks very bleak right now. I've been here 12 years and it may come to an end very soon.

Steve

Backyard · December 16, 2008, 03:21:05 PM

...two threads in the last day from folks who have noticed ...

Backyard · October 19, 2009, 11:45:22 PM

I started this thread eighteen months ago, back when baretable trains increased until the equipment was parked, people furlowed.

Now I hear traffic is picking up...

JCagle · October 20, 2009, 01:19:46 AM

Things seem to be picking up from what I have seen around the Carolinas in the past couple months. The latest data I can get my hands on readily was published last month and is about 2 months old now. Nationwide intermodal was down 13.1 percent over the same week in 2008. Some of the indicators generated by the manufacturing sector such as the purchasing managers index show industry to be on the verge of expanding. There is a good correlation between the purchasing managers index and the next month's car loads. Recently the purchasing managers index has been way higher than the carloads when they are plotted together. Basically the general trend is up even though it is at a slower rate than the expansion of industry. A sharp uptick in carloads could be coming if the purchasing managers index continues to suggest growth.

I had been doing some of this research for work, and during the research I ran across the rail comparison and found it interesting. Another reason for the uptick in intermodal could be related to the seasonal traffic increase due to the upcoming holiday season. Things are definately looking up it's just a matter of when things start to pick up signifigantly.

Backyard · October 20, 2009, 02:18:05 AM

Thanks Mr. Cagle, I had not heard of a purchasing managers index...that's good info.

To review this thread, I suggested that a drop in rail traffic, particularly the increased occurrence of bare-table intermodal trains indicated the economy was about to go in the tank...back then, the government was in denial that the economy was in recession.

Since then, even an editorial in Trains Magazine acknowledged that as a good seat-of-the-paints indicator of the state of the economy.

There was in fact a surge about a week before Labor Day, however some say due to the bad weather conditions, traffic dropped....

My opinion overall is that there are too many greedy people, too many people living beyond their means(on credit) & too many folks that just want to make tons of money for a recession to last very long.

But no doubt about it, it is a global recession!

NS145 · October 20, 2009, 11:32:41 AM

Check out this website: http://railfax.transmatch.com/

There has definately been a resurgence in traffic for all the Class I's in the 3rd quarter, after a flat 2nd quarter. KCS even briefly surpassed their 2008 carloads. You can also see the huge plunge in late 2008.

Out here on the Illinois Division things are picking up. There are only 5 men still furloughed on the Springfield/Hannibal District. Intermodal train 21T is starting to run so heavy that there is talk about NS reinstating a dedicated pair of Harrisburg-St. Louis trains. 20T and 21T would then be routed back onto the Springfield/Hannibal District. Train lengths are also increasing, with numerous trains now running close 10,000 feet long.

Backyard · October 20, 2009, 04:29:08 PM

Very good news!

However I want to caution about declaring the recession History before the economy becomes strong, vibrant & unemployment goes down...

There are many factors not just in the US-America but globally that can have an effect not yet foreseen...

But it would be nice to realize we had a barometer on the economy in our faces & yet did not notice.

For my premise to work, purchase orders are generated, the traffic increases, hiring happens, etc...

Then, I'll crow!

NS145 · October 20, 2009, 07:28:28 PM

I think the best conclusion at this point in time is that the bottom of the abyss has been reached and things are starting to turn around. Despite the traffic increase in the 3rd quarter, business is still well below pre-crash 2008 levels. Plus, the Forest, Metals, and Automotive sectors are still getting clobbered, especially if you compare 2009 vs. 2007. We still have a tough road to hoe...

ssmith1627 · October 20, 2009, 09:12:28 PM

Some reports out today talked about big layoffs in state and local governments to come. That's a horrible sign -- when does the government ever let people go ? I work in international transportation and our business is starting to show little signs of life. Still down a decent chunk from last year. I hope the predictions that we've hit bottom are right.

Steve

Backyard · October 20, 2009, 09:14:31 PM

Yea, one load per month revenue, inefficient utilization of resources, etc & such will be rooted out of the norm. That's what happens when you go global, or even international, on one continent...

Backyard · October 20, 2009, 09:24:38 PM

Well, I note as I have in the past, you are from Tennessee...there is a statute law in TN that prevents state tax withholdings from the wage-earners paycheck...

Our current gobenor(read Governor in Hispaniola), is due to exit soon....he can't suggest state tax, all the states around TN have state payroll tax. So he axes government services...duh.

But to his credit he has rallied time & time again for big industry in our state, esp. automotive.

He even spent over a million taxpayer $ on the gobenor's house...in the basement, a convention hall, just to sport big business investment in our state.

JCagle · October 20, 2009, 10:47:04 PM

Another thing to consider about states and the federal government laying off is they produce nothing so they can't say we are going to push to increase sales ect. They run off the taxes collected like income taxes, so they are going to be lagging in when a downturn hits them a little because of the way they collect.

One thing i forgot to mention is how the Purchasing Managers Index works. The Institute of Supply Chain Management releases the index. In a nut shell it is a compilation of data on new orders, inventory, production, supply deliveries, and employment. The data comes from several hundred supply managers across the country. It is viewed as a near to mid term forecasting indicator.

There are definitely places that are doing better than others. Even within regions and metro areas. Just in the Charlotte area there is a large discrepancy in the unemployment from county to county. Some of the harder hit areas that lost textile mills and manufacturing jobs in the last decade are especially hard hit, especially in the more rural areas. At the same time there are some of the suburbs that have relatively low unemployment just based on the makeup of the community.

It is definitely not going to be a quick v shaped recovery, but they have been forecasting a u shaped recovery for a while. Some of the graphs i have seen on several of the sectors my company deals with seem to be indicating we are on the up swing part of it with a definite down to flat spot throughout the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009.

At this point there are a lot of people that could use any hopeful word that is available. Here's to hoping things go up.

Backyard · October 21, 2009, 12:02:28 AM

Thanks, JB, when you capt. the words, I can Google the heck out of it!

One important aspect is to not localize on one sector or location....

2-ltr Coca-Cola bottles are shipped cap-on upside-down in fleets of 30-40 trailer loads, by intermodal...to a warehouse, trucked to the bottler, then returned to different markets. If you focus on that one commodity, the men in white coats will follow soon...

But Coca-Cola, we all know is not affected by recession...

Unemployment is marked by applications as recorded by states...when it runs out, the unemployed cannot register, therefore they drop off the map....

But the Big-Wheel is rolling, when it gets to run-8, it's hard to stop!

NS145 · October 21, 2009, 03:37:45 AM

Quote from: ssmith1627 on October 20, 2009, 09:12:28 PM
Some reports out today talked about big layoffs in state and local governments to come. That's a horrible sign -- when does the government ever let people go ?

When states like Illinois are $12 Billion in the hole. The entitlement programs are bankrupting the country and when tax receipts tank during a recession everything goes from bad to worse. A recent news story here in Illinois is projecting an additional budget shortfall of $900 million just because taxes are down far more than the budget gurus anticipated. I guess we're lucky. We could be California. I believe they are over $40 Billion in the hole.