8) One early indication of how the economy is doing, is that intermodal freight trains, go bare-table in the beginning, and before the recovery, they begin to disappear...
Have you seen a bare table train lately?
Post your opinions, pics, heads-up here!
A bare table train, with a brand new CSX Gevo along for the ride, makes it's way eastbound near Thoreau, NM and past some of the great scenery along the Gallup Sub. BNSF Gallup Sub, Thoreau, New Mexico. March 16, 2008...
(http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/2243/baretablepl3.jpg)
(http://imageshack.us/img/iss4.png)
I read in another forum that BNSF is now parking baretables on sidings in Montana and many other states due to the decrease in imports...
I saw a bunch of them parked along the Cleveland Line yesterday.
While the economy certainly affects how many cars are stored, sometimes the railroads simply run these baretable trains to balance out the number of well cars available at certain terminals. Most railroads do this sporadically, but from what I've seen BNSF seems to go about this practice quite frequently.
NS runs a weekly baretable train through here, symboled 23R. I believe it runs from South Carolina to North Jersey. Here's my only shot of it (and not a very good one at that.
http://rrpicturearchives.net/showPicture.aspx?id=756762
Bare-table trains are the result of the trade imbalance between the United States and Asian countries. Over the course of a recent five-year study, it was noted that the number of imported containers from Asia rose nearly 100 percent. If anything, the softening dollar should help to increase exports to cash laden Asian countries wishing to take advantage of the favorable exchange rate. Although, much of the exported freight probably won't be containerized.
8) There was a mild recession back in the late eighties, early nineties, I watched the CSX Kearny, New Jersey to Tampa, Florida Trains 175 and 181, and return as Trains 176 and 184, run by my house. I was not working regularly as business was slow.
I began to notice the mile or more trains become shorter, then shorter again, then short with half the train bare-table, then maybe two sets of 5-unit cars, then just engines.
I learned the crews were guaranteed their jobs for a period of time, then Trains 181 and 184 were cut off, and for several months only one northbound and one southbound ran, short, loaded, with a few bare-table cars.
It took about six months to get back to running 4 trains.
8) Going back, "pretty much empty," killed the CSX, as far as the RoadRailer concept goes.
What about Triple Crown Trains, those are dedicated markets...and are included under "Intermodal/Triple Crown Services."
How are they doing?...remembering less that 72 cars, require only one locomotive...that's a "Heads Up" for you!...
Quote from: troy12n on April 05, 2008, 06:23:17 PM
Quote from: nsboxcar on April 04, 2008, 10:19:25 PM
Bare-table trains are the result of the trade imbalance between the United States and Asian countries. Over the course of a recent five-year study, it was noted that the number of imported containers from Asia rose nearly 100 percent. If anything, the softening dollar should help to increase exports to cash laden Asian countries wishing to take advantage of the favorable exchange rate.
Although, much of the exported freight probably won't be containerized.
export what?
We dont make anything here anymore that the rest of the world would want except niche electronics, some military items, and they certainly dont go by rail.
Alot of the cars/trucks made in mexico now come to us in ships, the return flow of containers usually are empty or have scrap cars or junkers to sell to mexicans
most of those trans-pacific container ships go back pretty much empty, its part of the cost of doing business
To answer your question, much of the exports are bulk, raw materials that are not containerized-- as I wrote initially.
As a case in point to illustrate growing number of containerized exports, there is a demand for American produce, which is shipped to the Asian countries in refrigerated containers.
As you said, bare-table trains are a cost of doing business when trade is imbalanced.
8) So, we have a great opin, "Bare-table trains, are a cost of doing business...."
I can accept this................................................................................?
Domestic intermodel service (short-hauls) and international intermodel service (transcontinental) are too very different creatures.
Short-haul service, such as Triple Crowne, as well as, trailer-on-flat-car service (TOFC) up and down the east coast have smaller profit margins. Thus, it's very desirable and, in many cases, necessary to have traffic moving in both directions.
However, with transcontinental service, the trade imbalance has always necessitated that empty trains have to return west. Thus, the railroads make their profits on the inbound haul, and the return trip is merely to reposition equipment in order to do repeat the process.
Don't forget that, loaded or empty, railroads get paid for hauling trailers and container around. Rates are slightly higher for moving loads, but it's a very small amount. This is a primary reason why many railroads have moved out of owning their own trailers and containers. Loaded ratio for most common carriers is an important matrix to consider; the higher the ratio, the better. If they don't own the equipment, they don't need to be concerned with how to get it back to the headhaul market.
And from what I've heard, most TTX flats and wells are leased based on length of time, not miles traveled. So if you don't have room for them, why not stick a block of them on the rear of an intermodal train. Even in peak times, this "rolling storage" is quite common. It keeps them out of yards and terminals where space is ever so precious.
Chris
K8CRQ
No wonder I have commonly seen baretables (sometimes as many as 20 or so) at the end of intermodals....
Quote from: billworsham on April 08, 2008, 08:53:54 PM
No wonder I have commonly seen baretables (sometimes as many as 20 or so) at the end of intermodals....
There is another reason empty intermodal cars run on the rear of trains; this reason being that empty intermodal cars often have a restriction on the amount of trailing tonnage, or tonnage that can follow empty equipment.
These "container-less" trains seem to make a somewhat regular appearance where I live.
This one was heading westbound on the Sandusky district in Columbus, Ohio in August of 2007:
It's not possible to see the entire train, but if I recall there wasn't a single container on it. Not sure of the train ID either. I'm thinking 26J, or something with a letter in it. Otherwise, I have no clue.
(It looks like I"m having image problems; stand by)
OK, I'm a bit rusty on attaching pictures, but here's the 'somewhat' baretable train I caught. When I looked closely at it, I think there are some containers in the background, so it may not have been completely bare. Oh well, I hope you enjoy and find it interesting nonetheless...
Thanks Chuck! Don't be such a stranger here now! :)
Quote from: nsboxcar on April 14, 2008, 11:42:50 PM
Thanks Chuck! Don't be such a stranger here now! :)
Hey, my pleasure! I'll try to hang here more often, but things are keeping me busy...
8) Hey good buddies, what's it like where your at...the news, has actually announced recession...anyone to comment, with Pictures?
8) Oops!
They just announced that we are officially in recession...since the forth quarter of last year...
Someone posted the other day about NS Train 224 being a hit or miss & Train 360 being canned altogether...
Word is that it's gonna get worse & stay down until about next summer.
When it does you'll see less empties & more trains.
Right now there are no threads on reassignments or layoffs, but remember the predictions of a steady increase in rail traffic through 2020...freight train velocity has not been reduced but it for certain is not increasing.
Hang on to your hats...
8) Intermodal loads fall 7.9% (http://jreb.org/ns/index.php?topic=6855.msg19716;topicseen)
Saw a whole bunch of baretables on both of the sidings at Harriman Jct., Harriman, TN. on the K&O side of Caney Creek today. Never seen baretables parked there before. Don't know how long they have been there.
I havn't seen that many empties rolling through but I have noticed that the Intermodal trains are shorter through here. There are always a few empty spots. When I'm up on the Cleveland line later this month I can get a better idea of how bad things are. A good bit of the traffic through there are stacks during the day.
8) Thanks Mr. Cagle, whilst I'm not looking forward to hear of furlows, as I remember trains were doubled up & engines ran light before that happened...it seems like since Train 229 is a dedicated run it would only become shorter...
Mr. Worsham, are the parked cuts of cars you mentioned green? There is a contractor around Oak Ridge that is moving demolition waste out of K-12 that has strings of green platform & spine cars parked in that area...if the track is dormant then that might be the case.
We now know the economy is down & you can only run empty cars so far before their destination becomes crowded.
But my "theory" goes like this...when the economy begins it's upturn, you guys will be the first to see it!
The parked cuts of baretables were articulated well cars...they were their original colors with their original reporting marks.
We did see some demolition/cutting of cars under the 275/40 junction on the Coster line. Several men were out there cutting parts off the cars with their torches. There were about 5-7 railcars there on the little sidings beside the coster line, where they sometimes park the circus train.
8) The torches were probably just scavengers you know...the price of steel is about the same as aluminum now(lol).
People jump up & rebuild just about anywhere...or scrap-out.
Of course they could be just scrapping, now is the time to write-off...or storage.
It's the line-haul trains that handle freight so cheap that it takes volume to make a profit...that's why they'll come up running when the upturn takes hold.
We're talking pallets of empty 2-liter plastic Coke bottles in cases....toilet paper...etc.
The factor of just using trucking to make due is not a reality. Other than contract carriage, the truckers are hurting just as badly....& then of course at this point even contract carriers are subject to poverty...witness the rise in the number of used trucks on the side of the road. Each & every used truck that looks worn & torn has a heartbreak story in it's past...
Near the North Carolina Transportation Museum there is a large area in the old Spencer yard where NS will often store some excess rolling stock. Often they use it for holding stock that will be scrapped, but it would be a great place to drop some unused stock since things are slowing down. Next time I'm up that way I'll ride by and see what's there.
8) As I write this House MD is playing "Silent Night"....
I hope you guys have a very Merry Christmas in spite of the downturn...
...tying them down (http://www.railpictures.net/viewphoto.php?id=262822)
I handle the import containers for Goody's here. We moved 1250 of them last year. We've had our bankruptcy and store closings and we're down by 1/3rd this year. I've been told import container volumes are back down to 2004 levels. Ocean freight rates are starting to come down because the ships are no longer full.
It may get a lot worse for us. I don't know that Goody's is going to survive at all. It looks very bleak right now. I've been here 12 years and it may come to an end very soon.
Steve
8)...two threads in the last day from folks who have noticed ...
8) I started this thread eighteen months ago, back when baretable trains increased until the equipment was parked, people furlowed.
Now I hear traffic is picking up...
Things seem to be picking up from what I have seen around the Carolinas in the past couple months. The latest data I can get my hands on readily was published last month and is about 2 months old now. Nationwide intermodal was down 13.1 percent over the same week in 2008. Some of the indicators generated by the manufacturing sector such as the purchasing managers index show industry to be on the verge of expanding. There is a good correlation between the purchasing managers index and the next month's car loads. Recently the purchasing managers index has been way higher than the carloads when they are plotted together. Basically the general trend is up even though it is at a slower rate than the expansion of industry. A sharp uptick in carloads could be coming if the purchasing managers index continues to suggest growth.
I had been doing some of this research for work, and during the research I ran across the rail comparison and found it interesting. Another reason for the uptick in intermodal could be related to the seasonal traffic increase due to the upcoming holiday season. Things are definately looking up it's just a matter of when things start to pick up signifigantly.
8) Thanks Mr. Cagle, I had not heard of a purchasing managers index...that's good info.
To review this thread, I suggested that a drop in rail traffic, particularly the increased occurrence of bare-table intermodal trains indicated the economy was about to go in the tank...back then, the government was in denial that the economy was in recession.
Since then, even an editorial in Trains Magazine acknowledged that as a good seat-of-the-paints indicator of the state of the economy.
There was in fact a surge about a week before Labor Day, however some say due to the bad weather conditions, traffic dropped....
My opinion overall is that there are too many greedy people, too many people living beyond their means(on credit) & too many folks that just want to make tons of money for a recession to last very long.
But no doubt about it, it is a global recession!
Check out this website: http://railfax.transmatch.com/ (http://railfax.transmatch.com/)
There has definately been a resurgence in traffic for all the Class I's in the 3rd quarter, after a flat 2nd quarter. KCS even briefly surpassed their 2008 carloads. You can also see the huge plunge in late 2008.
Out here on the Illinois Division things are picking up. There are only 5 men still furloughed on the Springfield/Hannibal District. Intermodal train 21T is starting to run so heavy that there is talk about NS reinstating a dedicated pair of Harrisburg-St. Louis trains. 20T and 21T would then be routed back onto the Springfield/Hannibal District. Train lengths are also increasing, with numerous trains now running close 10,000 feet long.
8) Very good news!
However I want to caution about declaring the recession History before the economy becomes strong, vibrant & unemployment goes down...
There are many factors not just in the US-America but globally that can have an effect not yet foreseen...
But it would be nice to realize we had a barometer on the economy in our faces & yet did not notice.
For my premise to work, purchase orders are generated, the traffic increases, hiring happens, etc...
Then, I'll crow!
I think the best conclusion at this point in time is that the bottom of the abyss has been reached and things are starting to turn around. Despite the traffic increase in the 3rd quarter, business is still well below pre-crash 2008 levels. Plus, the Forest, Metals, and Automotive sectors are still getting clobbered, especially if you compare 2009 vs. 2007. We still have a tough road to hoe...
Some reports out today talked about big layoffs in state and local governments to come. That's a horrible sign -- when does the government ever let people go ? I work in international transportation and our business is starting to show little signs of life. Still down a decent chunk from last year. I hope the predictions that we've hit bottom are right.
Steve
8) Yea, one load per month revenue, inefficient utilization of resources, etc & such will be rooted out of the norm. That's what happens when you go global, or even international, on one continent...
8) Well, I note as I have in the past, you are from Tennessee...there is a statute law in TN that prevents state tax withholdings from the wage-earners paycheck...
Our current gobenor(read Governor in Hispaniola), is due to exit soon....he can't suggest state tax, all the states around TN have state payroll tax. So he axes government services...duh.
But to his credit he has rallied time & time again for big industry in our state, esp. automotive.
He even spent over a million taxpayer $ on the gobenor's house...in the basement, a convention hall, just to sport big business investment in our state.
Another thing to consider about states and the federal government laying off is they produce nothing so they can't say we are going to push to increase sales ect. They run off the taxes collected like income taxes, so they are going to be lagging in when a downturn hits them a little because of the way they collect.
One thing i forgot to mention is how the Purchasing Managers Index works. The Institute of Supply Chain Management releases the index. In a nut shell it is a compilation of data on new orders, inventory, production, supply deliveries, and employment. The data comes from several hundred supply managers across the country. It is viewed as a near to mid term forecasting indicator.
There are definitely places that are doing better than others. Even within regions and metro areas. Just in the Charlotte area there is a large discrepancy in the unemployment from county to county. Some of the harder hit areas that lost textile mills and manufacturing jobs in the last decade are especially hard hit, especially in the more rural areas. At the same time there are some of the suburbs that have relatively low unemployment just based on the makeup of the community.
It is definitely not going to be a quick v shaped recovery, but they have been forecasting a u shaped recovery for a while. Some of the graphs i have seen on several of the sectors my company deals with seem to be indicating we are on the up swing part of it with a definite down to flat spot throughout the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009.
At this point there are a lot of people that could use any hopeful word that is available. Here's to hoping things go up.
8) Thanks, JB, when you capt. the words, I can Google the heck out of it!
One important aspect is to not localize on one sector or location....
2-ltr Coca-Cola bottles are shipped cap-on upside-down in fleets of 30-40 trailer loads, by intermodal...to a warehouse, trucked to the bottler, then returned to different markets. If you focus on that one commodity, the men in white coats will follow soon...
But Coca-Cola, we all know is not affected by recession...
Unemployment is marked by applications as recorded by states...when it runs out, the unemployed cannot register, therefore they drop off the map....
But the Big-Wheel is rolling, when it gets to run-8, it's hard to stop!
Quote from: ssmith1627 on October 20, 2009, 09:12:28 PM
Some reports out today talked about big layoffs in state and local governments to come. That's a horrible sign -- when does the government ever let people go ?
When states like Illinois are $12 Billion in the hole. The entitlement programs are bankrupting the country and when tax receipts tank during a recession everything goes from bad to worse. A recent news story here in Illinois is projecting an additional budget shortfall of $900 million just because taxes are down far more than the budget gurus anticipated. I guess we're lucky. We could be California. I believe they are over $40 Billion in the hole.